Outlook is a measure of the intangibles about that player for the upcoming season. It is a calculated rating based off of positive criteria and negative criteria. Positive criteria includes things like: being in a contract year, having a high consistency rating, and being undervalued in relation to their draft position. Negative Criteria include things like: playing with a rookie QB, moving to a new team or being injured.
Each criteria has a value between -3 and +4. The Outlook rating adds up all the positive and negative criteria for that player and give them a score. A player can never have more than 5 stars or less than 1 star, so even if their criteria adds up to +10, they will only receive 5 stars. Likewise, if their score is -10, they will still get a 1 star rating.
Every player starts with one point (one star) and then that number is modified by the following.
WR, RB, TE Contract Year this season (+2)
WR, RB, TE Contract Year next season (+1)
QB Contract Year this season (+1)
QB Contract Year Next Season (+2) - Most QBs receive a contract extension the year before they enter a contract year so a bigger bonus is applied here.
Kick/Punt Returner (+1)
Upward Trend (+1)
New Head Coach (+1) – criteria is seasons on team>1 & seasons with head coach=1
High Reliability (+1)
High Consistency (+1) – criteria Consistency > 6
Undervalued (+1) – (player value less Expected Draft Position (EDP) <-10)
RB1-2 Rush Volume (+3) – RB Projected Touches >= 186
RB Flex Rush Volume (+2) – (186 > RB Projected Touches >135)
Elite RB Pass Catcher (+2) – RB Projected Targets >= 69
RB Pass Catcher (+1) – (69 > RB Projected Targets > 33)
Elite WR volume (+4) – WR Projected Targets >= 143
WR2 volume (+3) – (143 > WR Projected Targets >= 119)
WR Flex Volume (+2) – (119 > WR Projected Targets > 106)
Elite TE volume (+4) – TE Projected targets >= 109
TE1 Volume (+3) – (109 > TE Projected Targets > 84)
QB1 Pass volume (+3) – QB Projected Completions >= 360
QB2 Pass volume (+2) – (360 > QB Projected Completions > 295)
QB1 Rusher (+2) – QB Projected Touches > 62
Upside +1 - This is a discretionary rating that I can add to a player that I feel has some upside.
Upside +2 - This is a discretionary rating that I can add to a player that I feel has significant upside.
Downward Trend (-2)
Big Contract Hangover (-1) - Signed a big, multi-year contract extension in the offseason
New Team (-1) – criteria is seasons in league > 1 and seasons on team = 1)
Touches 300+ (-1)
Sophomore Slump (-1) – criteria is seasons in league = 2
Same Coach, losing record (-1) – criteria is seasons on team > 1 & team had less than 7 wins
Same Coach, new Offensive Coordinator (-1) – criteria seasons on team > 1 & seasons with offensive coordinator = 1)
Low Reliability (-1)
Low/Unknown Consistency (-1) – criteria consistency < 4
Over 300 touches prior season (-1)
RB over age 28 (-2)
WR over age 30 (-2)
Playing with a Rookie QB (-2) – can you make this one of my criteria that I checkmark on the back end (like contract year)
Playing with a new QB (-1) – make this a checkmark on the back end
Played in Super Bowl previous season (-1) – can you make this another criteria that I can checkmark on the back end.
Overvalued (-1) – Value less Expected Draft Position > 10
Downside -1 - Same as the upside criteria, they are used as my discretion when I feel other negative factors haven't been considered.
Click on a player name to open the player detail screen. The list of positive and negative critera will be listed just below the Player Commentary.
In the above example, Odell currently has a 3 star ranking. HIs positive criteria include being in a contract year (+2); having a new head coach (+1) and getting elite wide receiver volume (+4). Negative criteria includes his season ending injury from last season (-3) and a low/unknown consistency (-1). As of the writing of this article, I am waiting to see him have a full medical clearance and be a full participant during pre-season for me to remove the injury designation. Once the injury is cleared, he will have a 5 star outlook. There are also threats of a holdout, which could negatively affect his ranking.
Team Defenses do get an outlook rating as well, but they are not calculated. They are merely a rough estimate of my opinion about that defense. Most defenses will be ranked two or three stars, which means I'm either slightly negative or neutral on them. For me, the most important part to know about the defense position is when they are being selected so you can know when you have to select your favorite team.